As the sweltering days of summer press on, the playoff picture in Major League Baseball is coming into sharper focus. With approximately 30 regular-season games remaining for each team, the anticipation of the postseason looms large. While the upper echelons of the league have remained relatively consistent since our last playoff update, the AL West has witnessed a noteworthy shift with the surging Seattle Mariners.
In other parts of the MLB landscape, the race for the NL Wild Card is shaping up to be a closely contested battle. Even the Baltimore Orioles, who boast the best record in the AL and have maintained their division lead in the AL East for over a month, are facing stiff competition from the Tampa Bay Rays. While the playoff picture is taking form, it remains fluid, particularly with tiebreaker scenarios that could alter the final standings.
Here’s a snapshot of what the postseason would look like if it were to begin today.
All statistics are current as of Tuesday’s games.
AMERICAN LEAGUE
First Round Byes: Orioles (1st seed) and Rangers (2nd seed)
Wild Card Series Matchups:
- Astros (6th seed) at Twins (3rd seed)
- Mariners (5th seed) at Rays (4th seed)
Just on the Brink: Blue Jays (3.5 games behind the Wild Card)
The Seattle Mariners have made a remarkable leap in the standings since our last playoff update. At that time, they were trailing by 2.5 games in the Wild Card race, but they now share the division’s top spot with the Texas Rangers. However, the Rangers hold the tiebreaker advantage due to a 5-1 head-to-head record (with seven more games to play against each other). The Mariners have surged forward on the strength of an elite pitching staff, leading the Majors with a 3.64 ERA, and an offense boasting an .818 OPS since July 1, surpassed only by the Braves and Dodgers. Meanwhile, the Baltimore Orioles maintain their impressive form with an AL-best 83-49 record, despite the setback of Félix Bautista’s UCL injury.
With the AL West currently in a virtual tie, tiebreaker scenarios could play a pivotal role as the season progresses. Presently, the Rangers hold the edge with a winning record against the Mariners. However, the Astros have a superior head-to-head record against the Rangers, while the Mariners have already secured the season series against the Astros with an 8-2 record in their first 10 meetings. All three teams will face each other in upcoming intradivision matchups, adding even more weight to these games. As the AL Central appears to be decided, with the Twins holding a comfortable six-game lead over the Guardians, attention is shifting to the AL divisional and Wild Card standings.
Divisional Series Matchups:
- Astros (6th seed) or Twins (3rd seed) at Rangers (2nd seed)
- Mariners (5th seed) or Rays (4th seed) at Orioles (1st seed)
The Orioles, currently leading the AL in wins with 98, last accomplished this feat in 1997 when Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson had not yet been born. This exemplifies the resurgence of a Baltimore team that is enjoying its best season in years, fueled by a wave of young talent. FanGraphs’ latest playoff odds give the Orioles a 2-in-3 chance of winning their division, likely earning them the top seed.
If the Mariners can secure the division title, it would mark the first time they’ve held one of the top AL spots since their historic 2001 season, when they tied the MLB record with 116 wins. Those seasons also represent the last time the Mariners made consecutive playoff appearances. Should the Orioles and either the Rangers or Mariners maintain their current positions, it would defy the recent trend of dominance at the top two spots by the Astros, Yankees, Red Sox, and Rays.
NATIONAL LEAGUE
First Round Byes: Braves (1st seed) and Dodgers (2nd seed)
Wild Card Series Matchups:
- Giants (6th seed) at Brewers (3rd seed)
- Cubs (5th seed) at Phillies (4th seed)
On the Fringe: D-backs (0.5 games out of Wild Card), Reds (2 games behind), Marlins (3 games behind)
In the National League, the top two teams have been clear for quite some time. The Braves and Dodgers, perennial contenders, continue to reign as the elite squads in the senior circuit. Atlanta boasts one of MLB’s premier and deepest lineups, featuring stars like Ronald Acuña Jr. and the formidable power threat of Matt Olson. The Dodgers, meanwhile, possess their own dynamic duo in Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman, who are strong contenders for the NL MVP title.
The next tier of NL teams, the Brewers and Phillies, have maintained their strong positions. Milwaukee recently enjoyed a nine-game winning streak, securing a four-game lead over the Cubs in the NL Central. The Phillies have been slugging an MLB-leading 57 home runs in August and have extended their lead as the top Wild Card team to five games. In contrast, the race for the final two Wild Card spots remains highly competitive, with only three games separating four teams: the Cubs, Giants, D-backs, and Reds.
Divisional Series Matchups:
- Giants (6th seed) or Brewers (3rd seed) at Dodgers (2nd seed)
- Cubs (5th seed) or Phillies (4th seed) at Braves (1st seed)
For the Braves and Dodgers, securing the top two NL seeds is a familiar story. They occupied these positions last year and have done so in three of the past four seasons leading up to this year. This marks the sixth consecutive season both teams would make the playoffs. However, it serves as a reminder of recent playoff history in the National League, where even the 101-win Braves and 111-win Dodgers were eliminated in the NLDS last year.
Out from Last Year:
Blue Jays, Cardinals, Guardians, Mets, Padres, Yankees
Several teams that experienced recent success and entered the season with high expectations have faced challenging campaigns. Both the Padres and Yankees, who reached their respective league’s championship series last year, are on track to finish well below .500. The Cardinals and Mets, on the other hand, executed significant trades at the Trade Deadline as part of their long-term retooling strategies. Of these teams, the Blue Jays have the best chance of securing a playoff berth, sitting within striking distance of the third Wild Card spot.
Newcomers This Year:
Brewers, Cubs, Giants, Orioles, Rangers, Twins
This season has been significant for newcomers looking to make a postseason impact. Notably, the Orioles and Mariners are striving to finish as top-two AL teams for the first time in over two decades. For the Rangers, this would mark their first playoff appearance since 2016 when they led the AL with 96 wins.
