The basketball landscape is changing, with contracts reaching astronomical values. In this examination, we analyze how the National Basketball Association (NBA) might soon see a player secure a $400 million contract.
A Brief Overview
Understanding the NBA’s financial system, including the salary cap and luxury tax threshold, is pivotal for grasping the concept of a $400 million contract. These values dictate player salaries and are derived from a percentage of the league’s Basketball Related Income (BRI), which includes revenues like broadcasting rights, merchandising, and ticket sales.
The NBA Financial Landscape Today
Currently, we’re witnessing a period of rapid growth in player contracts. The NBA’s salary cap is expected to skyrocket, reaching levels that could support a $400 million contract. In fact, the leap from the league’s first-ever $200 million contract (signed by Stephen Curry in 2017) to the first $300 million deal took only four years, implying a strong upward trend.
The Path to $400 Million
There are two primary paths that could lead a player to sign a $400 million contract:
- The NBA’s salary cap continues to rise at its current rate, reaching the threshold that would support a $400 million contract.
- A player significantly outperforms expectations, earning accolades that qualify them for a substantial supermax extension.
Both scenarios are explored in depth below.
The Projections: A Closer Look
In order to truly appreciate the journey towards a $400 million contract, it’s crucial to delve into the projected financial milestones in the coming years. From the initial stages where contracts touch $332 million, to the thrilling prospect of an athlete earning $1 million per game, to finally reaching the coveted $400 million mark – let’s traverse this exciting financial path. The next few sections will provide a chronological exploration of these impending milestones, mapping out the possible beneficiaries and the remarkable contract amounts they could command.
2025-26 Season
The first significant milestone might be in the 2025-26 season, when the NBA’s salary cap could support a supermax contract totaling over $332 million. Players such as Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jayson Tatum, who recently signed max rookie extensions, are primed to benefit from this increase.
2026-27 Season
In the 2026-27 season, we could see a player earning $1 million per game for the first time in NBA history. The potential supermax contract total for the season is projected at over $367 million. Players like Joel Embiid, Luka Doncic, and Trae Young could be in line to secure these groundbreaking contracts.
2027-28 Season
In the 2027-28 season, we might witness the first-ever $400 million contract. The potential supermax contract total for the season is projected at over $404 million. Nikola Jokic, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and Devin Booker are noteworthy candidates who could secure the NBA’s first $400 million contract.
Beyond the Projections
While these projections provide a fascinating glimpse into the future, it’s important to remember that they’re just that — projections. Several factors could influence the realization of a $400 million contract, including changes to the league’s financial structure, alterations in player performance, and shifts in the league’s overall economic health.
For instance, the NBA’s current collective bargaining agreement, which informs many of these financial structures, is only valid until the 2029-30 season. Additionally, there are ongoing talks of a league expansion, which would see the introduction of two new teams. Such an expansion would influence the BRI, and by extension, the salary cap.
Nevertheless, the NBA is in a robust financial position. The new national television contract is expected to create a massive influx of revenue, which, as mandated by the collective bargaining agreement, must be shared almost evenly with the players.
To put things in perspective, consider the following quote:
“So far in his career, LeBron James has earned roughly $530 million. It is not a stretch to suggest that the first player who will earn $1 billion in lifetime NBA salaries is already in the league today. Just churn through a few $400 million contracts and you’ll cross that line in no time.”
Therefore, while the future of NBA contracts remains somewhat uncertain, the prospect of a $400 million contract is not just probable — it seems almost inevitable. In fact, such a milestone may only be a few seasons away.
The NBA’s Top Earners: Setting the Stage
Before we venture into the future, let’s take a moment to acknowledge the current highest-paid players in the NBA, the athletes who are setting the stage for the impressive contracts to come. This will give us a better understanding of the trajectory of salaries in the NBA.
- Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors: The first NBA player to ever sign a $200 million contract, Curry set a high bar for the league. His current five-year contract, signed in 2017, is worth a whopping $201 million.
- LeBron James, Los Angeles Lakers: James has been at the pinnacle of the NBA’s financial pyramid for years. The “King” agreed to a two-year, $85.7 million contract extension with the Lakers in 2020, solidifying his spot as one of the league’s highest earners.
- Kevin Durant, Brooklyn Nets: Durant, after signing a four-year, $164 million contract with the Nets in 2019, continues to be one of the biggest earners in the NBA.
- Russell Westbrook, Los Angeles Lakers: Westbrook is on a five-year, $206.8 million contract that he originally signed with the Oklahoma City Thunder, making him one of the highest-paid players in the league.
- James Harden, Brooklyn Nets: Harden, like Durant, is in the upper echelons of NBA earners, thanks to a four-year, $171 million extension he signed with the Houston Rockets, which is still in effect following his trade to the Nets.
While these contracts are already staggering, the next wave of supermax contracts are projected to dwarf these figures, thanks to increasing revenue and a continually escalating salary cap. The likes of Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jayson Tatum, and others are poised to ride this wave, redefining the limits of player earnings.
